Outline of Talk on Syria at Palestine Action of South Sound (PASS) Educational Event

PASS

PASS

— 9 min read

By Peter Bohmer
December 16, 2024 (slight revised December 23, 2024)

In examining Syria today, it is important to begin with the needs, desires, concerns possibilities of the Syrian people, especially the popular classes, women and ethnic and religious groups that have been discriminated against, with the Syrian people as subject at the center of our understanding. Geopolitics matters; Syria’s role in the world and the Middle East is important and should not be disregarded but it should not be the main frame, not at the center of our analysis of recent events. 

Brief outline of Syrian history:

  1. French colonialism—Syria, part of Ottoman empire, became a French colony after WWI. French colony until end of WWII, independence movement. Syria won independence in 1946 when France withdrew.
  2. Demographics—population, 22.5 million, before civil war: 6 million external refugees, majority in Turkey; 7 million are internally displaced.
  • Ethnicity: Arabs are by far the largest group,  Kurds-10%; Turkmen-4%. 
  • Religion:
    • Sunni Muslim--74%
    • Shia Muslim—10-12 %, mainly Alawites. Assad family, most of Shia in Syria are Alawite
    • Christian—10%
    • Druze, 3%
  • Slightly over 50% of Syria is urban, 40% plus rural. Syria today is a very poor country.

3. Government –Ba’ath Party, Nationalist, called itself socialist; initially, mainly public owned industries, similar party in Iraq—although major split. Pan Arab. Ba’ath Party ruled Syria from 1963 until December 7, 2024. Assads, father and son, top down and military dominated but social programs, secular. More women’s rights than many countries in the Middle East.

4. 1967 war—Israel seized Golan Heights, Syria, Egypt and Jordan lost 1967 war to Israel. Besides Israel occupying West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, it also occupied 2/3 of Golan Heights. Israel annexed this part of Golan Heights in 1981 and occupied the rest after December 7th, 2024. Israel has also announced it will double number of Jew settlers and indefinitely maintain an illegal military occupation there.  Israel annexation of Golan Heights, recognized during 1st Trump administration, U.S. only country to do so. 

5. Assads, Hafez and Bashar

Hafez al-Assad, military leader and leader of Ba’ath Party seized power in 1971—increasingly centralized power under his authoritarian rule—Leaders of military, security increasingly Alawite, a branch of Shia Muslim. Move away from nationalization towards mixed economy. Improvements of standard of living, social programs in 1970’s and early 1990’s; but problem with growing enough food; growing food insecurity.  Much higher income in Syria than today. Aligned with Soviet Union until its collapse.

Increasing opposition to Hafez al-Assad led government both by democratic and progressive groups and by Moslem Brotherhood. Assad government killed hundreds in Homs in 1981 who were anti dictatorship; and tens of thousands of civilians in Hama in 1982 in uprising there, led by Muslim Brotherhood. Increasing imprisonment, torture of all opposition. In 1991, Syria supported US and Kuwait in war against Iraq, the Gulf War. Hafez al-Assad died in 2000.

Followed by son, Bashar al-Assad, neo-liberal, cutback in social programs—increasingly brutal; allied with Russia, although worked with U.S. after 9/11/2001 in torturing people captured by US, extraordinary rendition. Nominally Ba’ath Party but like his dad increasingly one person rule.

 6.  2011 mass protests in Syria, part of Arab Spring. Major and inspiring and popular uprising, non-violent in 2011, including direct democracy in many places—see the book Burning Country by Robin Yasmin-Khattab and Leila Al-Shami. Non-sectarian, inclusive of all ethnicities, religions. Call for end of dictatorship and for end of Assad regime. 

Uprising met by torture and repression and mass imprisonment of youths as young as 13 by the Syrian State.  Some similarities to popular uprising in Egypt. Bashar al-Assad reasserted control. Aimed  to crush all opposition by murderous violence.

7. 2011-2012 murderous repression. In response, increasingly armed resistance, growing involvement of other countries—Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia in supporting armed rebellion and financing Jihadist groups. Assad government almost fell. Growth of Al Qaeda, and later ISIS in Syria.

Beginning 2013, increasing military involvement of Iran and especially Hezbollah in support of Bashar al-Assad and brutal attacks on all opposition, Jihadist, Islamist and secular. Assad government had lost legitimacy and control of a lot of territory even with the military support of Iran and Hezbollah. 

2015—Russia began major bombing of Syria, major use of barrel bombs. Syrian military use of poison gas, ordered by al-Assad in opposition cities, (many not Jihadist led), many near Damascus.

Millions of Syrians fled Syria—as I already mentioned and even more internal refuges, many to Idlib, northwest Syria, that was controlled by Nusra Front that broke from Al Qaeda in 2016.

2015-2024-Assad rule by force and terror, declining food availability.

Economic situation, Major continuing decline in output and income, destruction of infrastructure, major decline of oil production.

US and Russia collaborated in major attacks, mainly mass bombing in Syria on ISIS controlled areas in Syria, major fighting against ISIS by Kurdish led group, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in alliance with U.S. They defeated ISIS. Rojava has been autonomous, uneasy agreement with Assad. 

2017—I worked with Syrian refugees in Thessaloniki in northern Greece. They arrived by crossing the Aegean Sea from Turkey where they had migrated to. Many Syrians died en route. They hoped to eventually migrate to western Europe and each week for about 10 weeks in winter, 2017, I taught about a different country where they might emigrate to.  My Syrian students were about ¾ Arab and ¼ Kurdish. Many had fled Syria for a combination of economic reasons and the war; others because of  repression of the government,  I remember in a class in Thessaloniki in January 2017, telling the Syrian refugees about solidarity in U.S. with Syrians and with other Muslim countries by protesters blocking Kennedy and SeaTac airports; some  of the Syrians cried in their feelings of appreciation for those in the U.S. who took a stand against the Muslim ban.

Hundreds of thousands were killed in Syria between 2011 and 2024, the majority, civilians by the regime and its backers: disappearances, systematic torture and murder in prisons—worst and infamous, Sednaya in Damascus. Continual support of Assad government by Hezbollah, and Russia and Iran.

Many Palestinian refugees in Syria, about 450,000. Support by Assad regime for Gaza and Palestine in words but not in deeds. However, Syria has been an important conduit for military aid from Iran to Hezbollah which has been used in defending Lebanon and fighting Israel in solidarity with Gaza. This is unlikely to continue in the present.

8. Rojava, also called, Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), majority Kurdish, autonomous since 2012. Kurds are in Iran, Syria, Iraq and Turkey, a people without a country. Almost 5 million people live in Rojava. Governing group is political party, PYD (Democratic Union Party) with substantial local rule and power. The PYD is closely allied with PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), Kurdish left political party in Turkey. In Rojava, support for women’s equality, cooperatives, for the most part, democratic, influenced by ideas of Murray Bookchin and Ocalan—imprisoned leader of PKK, ecosocialist. Turkey wants to destroy Rojava and PYD. U.S. has supported Rojava against threat of full-scale Turkish invasion. U.S. has 2000 troops in and near Rojava,  and works closely with Syrian Defense Force (SDF), the main military force of Rojava, training and arming them. SDF fought and fights ISIS effectively. YPJ (Women’s Protection Units) is women’s militia. PYD is ruling party, worth studying as is organization of society there —deserve critical support.  Mainly inclusive of Syrian Arabs, and other groups in Syria such as Yazidis. Much support for Rojava in Olympia. 

9. Present—Beginning in late November 2024, major offensive against Assad regime, first seizing of Aleppo, 2 million people, second biggest city in Syria, beautiful and old, and then Hama and Homs.  Syrian military collapsed, stopped fighting and fled as did Bashar al-Assad from Damascus, December 7 or 8th. Main group from north and leader of forces overthrowing Assad regime is HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) led by Ahmed al-Shaara (previously Abu-Mohammad Julani). They have controlled Idlib Province since 2016—authoritarian and Islamist, Sunni, but claim to no longer discriminate against Shia Muslims, Christians and Kurds. Repression in Idlib under their rule but not on level of Assad. Taxed population heavily. HTS and al-Shaara on US and EU terrorist list.  Some support from Turkey although not under Turkish control; unlikely support from U.S. and Israel until now. Let us not claim this unless real evidence. 

Other main groups—Syrian National Army (SNA), used to be called Free Syrian Army—Turkish backed and armed—uneasy alliance with HTS. With Turkish support and involvement, they have been attacking Rojava and seized at least one city, Manbij. SNA is authoritarian, repressive against population. Also renewed Turkish attacks against Rojava, although Turkey agreed to a cease fire with U.S. on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 

More hopeful are groups, south of Damascus in Druze majority area such as Suwayda, and with local forces in Daraa—some links to popular uprising of 2011. Involved in liberation and fall of Damascus to anti-Assad forces on December 6-8, 2024

Concluding Comments

A. Without the support of Russia and Russian military, and Iran, and Hezbollah fighters, the Assad regime quickly collapsed. Syrian military fled, little fighting. Shows how Assad regime had little legitimacy and ruled because of foreign support and force.

B. Since December 7, 2024, massive bombing by Israel, most since 1967 and 1973 wars with Israel. Some ongoing bombing by Israel on Syria before December 7, 2024, but not on this current scale. Israel has seized land, invasion of Golan Heights and murderous and daily bombing, mainly military targets throughout Syria—total violation of Syrian sovereignty. Israel says reason is fear of anti-Israel government, now or in future. This current bombing by Israel makes it somewhat unlikely Israeli supported coalition led by HTS in its overthrow of the Assad government. If Israel was behind HTS, why would Israel bomb a government controlled by HTS and its leader, Ahmed al-Shaara (previously Julani)? HTS has made statements against massive Israeli bombing. Let us strongly oppose Israel bombing and occupation of Syria as we continue  to challenge Israeli murderous aggression against Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and the West Bank of Palestine and its genocidal war against Gaza.

C. Popular support for overthrow of Assad is overwhelming. I have been moved and cried reading about the opening of the prisons and the release of tens of thousands of political prisoners, like at Sednaya—many with signs of torture and emaciated but alive. This reminded me of survivors of concentration camps. Some of worst prisons in world. Celebrations in the streets in most of the country, less in Alawite areas where Assad still has support.

D. Russia  has two military bases in Syria-not clear whether they will remain.

E. Rojava area dependent on US military for survival, 2000 U.S. troops. They are needed for Rojava to maintain autonomy against Turkish military invasion and growing SNA attacks. SDF (mainly Kurdish) are imprisoning 9000 ISIS prisoners and also 20,000 members of their families. ISIS still exists in Syria, mainly in NE Syria, near Rojava, which is near Syrian oilfields. This is part of reason for U.S. military presence—not clear whether U.S. military will continue to be there with Trump administration. It is a dangerous situation for Rojava and especially, Kurdish population in Syria.

F. Ahmed al-Shaara, the leader of HTS, has promised a civilian and inclusive government with elections. The UN has offered to send peacekeepers and support a government that supports women’s rights, religious and ethnic minorities and human rights. I support that. Likely outcome from the top is another authoritarian government with new enemies, bad for women, Alawites, Rojava, workers, Christians, students. HTS and al-Shaara claim they favor Islamic rule but say they are not Jihadist; that they are nationalists with no interests beyond Syria and will not favor Sunnis over other groups. We shall see! Turkey military is in Syria, and likely to play a major and imperialist role. 

G. Danger of break up or partition of Syria into many areas, controlled by different repressive and authoritarian groups (although not authoritarian in Rojava) and continued mass poverty, Syria has experienced continued economic decline and lack of food, education, health care. Need for economic recovery and growth in a united Syria that is one country, although with autonomy in Rojava.

H.  Hope for future of Syria is the mass outpouring in the streets all over the country, growth of civil society, of fundamental change from below.  Growth of popular grass roots organization and movements and unions and new political parties remerging. Syrian history has been rich in these movements. There will be more of an opening than under the Assad dictatorships and hope that from the bottom up a democratic and progressive Syria will emerge. Not that likely but more possible than in the last 11 years. An opening right now.

I. A democratic and progressive Syria would be pro-Palestinian because Syrian people are, and likely to strongly support Gaza and the Palestinian struggle for self-determination. 

J. Let us demand right of Syrian refugees to stay in Turkey, European Union, U.S., Canada and other countries. 

K. Let us here, in the U.S., act in solidarity with popular movements in Syria and against Turkish domination and intervention in Kurdish areas and all of Syria.  Support economic and humanitarian aid to Syria through aid that is not conditional on neoliberal reforms or alliance with Turkey, the U.S. or the Gulf States, rather by the UN and non-neoliberal organization! Need for economic reconstruction including the infrastructure of Syria which has been largely destroyed by 13 years of war. Probably in short run best if US troops stay until Turkish threat is reduced and then withdrawal of all foreign troops, Turkish, U.S., Russian and other. 

  • References: Burning Country by Robin Yasmin-Khattab and Leila Al-Shami, excellent on 2011.
  • See interviews of Joseph Daher and Gilbert Achar on New Politics website, Newpol.org 

Read more